Examining the Stayers’ Hurdle trends and who they could suit

While every trainer aims to have their thoroughbreds in as strong a run of form as they can in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival, recent performances are not the only factor to consider when attempting to determine the victor on the day.

In addition to form, other factors include the trends of previous winners – and with that in mind – read on as we take a look at five of the key metrics in the Cheltenham betting guide that could help punters make an educated bet in the Festival’s feature race on day three – the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Age

With 10 of the 12 previous winners aged between six and eight, it’s hard to decipher who this race will suit purely based on this metric given the three shortest priced favourites Blazing Khal, Teahupoo, and Home By The Lee all fit into this category.

Odds

Only four of the past dozen Stayers’ Hurdle champions have entered the three-mile contest as the pre-race favourite – therefore 3/1 shot Blazing Khal will need to overcome those odds if he’s to buck the trend and reign supreme.

Season History

11 out of the 12 previous victors had at least two runs and one victory during their current season, a statistic only three entries boast in 2023. Teahupoo has lined up twice this season at Fairyhouse and Gowran Park, both of which resulted in convincing wins. 11/2 hope Home By The Lee also has two triumphs in his 2022/23 campaign to date, reigning supreme in a Grade 2 affair at Navan before romping home in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Lastly, former Stayers’ Hurdle champion Paisley Park is the third and final thoroughbred to fit this trend, with the 11-year-old having a relatively active season – saddling up on three occasions and finishing first past the post in her run at Kempton.

Graded History

Ensuring your horse has form against elite opposition is evidently important for the Stayers’ Hurdle, with nine of the last 12 victors having had a Grade 1 success on their résumé. There are a plethora of horses in this year’s field of entries who fit that trend – the list of which is as follows:

Teahupoo, Paisley Park, Home By The Lee, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream, Dashel Drasher, Sharjah, Sir Gerhard, Far Hills, Asterion Forlonge, Beacon Edge, Chacun Pour Soi, Sire Du Berlais, Summerville Boy.

Surprisingly, favourite Blazing Khal is not on that list, with three Grade 2 victories being his most notable achievements in his career thus far.

Course and Distance

11 of the 12 previous winner had at least one course run, and eight of 12 won at least twice over 2m8f-3m1f in their career. There are only four entries who fit both those trends, with former Stayers’ Hurdle champions Flooring Porter and Paisley Park boasting the strongest course and distance form of the field, while Klassical Dream and Sire Du Berlais round out the rest.

Conclusion

While one can’t know for certain whether or not these trends will ultimately decide the winner, they’re most definitely statistics worth bearing in mind when trying to make an educated bet this Cheltenham Festival.