2024 Men’s T20 World Cup: First Round to Tournament Winners Predictions

The long-awaited T20 World Cup will take place in Australia until November 13. What was meant to be a 2020 tournament will now see 16 of the best teams in men’s cricket compete for the crown currently owned by Australia, having won the 2023 edition in the UAE and Oman.

For the next month, cricket will likely dominate the Feedinco News feed, finishing just in time to pass the baton on to the 2024 FIFA World Cup. While the teams that make it out of Round 1 will have a say as the tournament moves through the Super 12 phase, experts already have their favorites to win the 2024 Men’s T20 World Cup.

Predicting first-round winners and qualifiers

In Round 1 of the T20 World Cup, two groups of four teams face each other once in a round-robin format to decide which two from each group will progress to the Super 12 phase. This year, as The Hindu reports, two surprise teams feature in this first round, and are expected to dominate the proceedings.

In Group A, the Netherlands, UAE, and Namibia are joined by Sri Lanka, who are expected to clear the group with relative ease. Standing eighth in the T20i World Rankings, Sri Lanka’s closest competitor looks to be the UAE at 13th, while Namibia isn’t much further back in 14th. The Netherlands enter the World Cup while 18th in the rankings. If one were to be picked to progress with Sri Lanka, it’d narrowly have to be Namibia.

Set to be a hot pick on the Cricket Tips pages, two-time champions West Indies face what looks to be a tougher set of foes in Group B that Sri Lanka meets in Group A. Zimbabwe, Ireland, and Scotland rank 12th, 13th, and 15th, respectively. While Zimbabwe do hold the higher rankings spot, it’s tough to overlook Ireland as the "best of the rest" team here, rapidly climbing the charts this year.

The Super 12 and beyond

The Super 12 is where the T20 World Cup really gets going. If all goes as predicted above, the West Indies and Namibia will join Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and South Africa in Group 2 of the Super 12. Group 1 would then see Sri Lanka and possibly Ireland pile in with Afghanistan, New Zealand, England, and hosts Australia. Only two teams from each group will progress to the Knockout Stage.

Given that, as of October 6, the T20 World Cup betting odds hold Australia as the 3.75 favorites bets, England in third at 4.75, New Zealand in fifth at 9.00, and the West Indies as dark horses in seventh at 17.00, it would seem as though the bookmakers are earmarking Group 1 as the tougher call. Sure, India (4.50), South Africa (8.50), and Pakistan (9.25) aren’t too far back of the Group 1 frontrunners, but Australia are significantly out in front.

You can always use the Odds Converter if those shown above aren’t your preference. Regardless, what they say is that Australia, England, India, and South Africa are the most likely, per the odds, to escape the groups. That said, there’s certainly caution given to the potential wild cards of New Zealand and Pakistan, as well as West Indies if they play to their full ability and crush Group B.

It’s a shame that the FTX Bracket Challenge, put on by the cryptocurrency exchange, isn’t returning this year. If it did, you’d expect to see many brackets run India out as the winners. India may have performed pitifully at the 2023 T20 World Cup, but they’ve really stepped up their T20 game since, winning seven of their last ten coming into this year’s tournament. Virat Kohli is on the warpath, they recently won 2-1 in a series against their closest group competitors, South Africa, and sit clear atop the team rankings.

Coming out of Group 1, New Zealand will almost certainly hinder the efforts of either England or Australia, and the West Indies have proven in the not-too-distant past to have England’s number. On home soil, though, you’d have to lean towards Australia topping the group and running to the final. With Aaron Finch, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Starc, and David Warner suiting up, the Aussies will certainly be tough to beat.

The odds rightfully favor Australia as the hosts and defending champions, but a team hasn’t ever won back-to-back T20 World Cups – even though they’re usually only a couple of years apart – and neither has a host nation won. With India doing so well of late, it’s easy to peek past the frontrunners and give a nod to the Men in Blue.